Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Back up the truck on Gold

I know it's been a while, but it's been spent working, living, drinking, playing, etc'ing.

I've learned a lot already in 2011. Now that Sequent Asset Management's hedge fund is up and running ($100,000 minimum investment in case anyone needs another way to diversify their portfolio), I've been able to begin to see patterns emerge between the model, my personal trading habits, and the market. When volatility is low and the model wants to come out to play for the week and invest, the market seems to drift higher. When the model shuts itself off for the week and doesn't invest, my account and the market chops around or drops, and increases in volatility. In conclusion, the model doesn't like volatility and is a great predictor of it. Similarly, I and my portfolio don't like volatility and will most likely lower my risk or take profits when the model stays out of the market.

The model is back in this week after sitting out for 2 weeks in a row. The market has rallied on Monday and is staying above water today. We should see decent UE numbers on Friday and the US economy continues to show good numbers and is the place to be in 2011, especially now that emerging markets are showing weakness. I scooped up a bunch of positions the last 2 weeks in the midst of volatility and am now waiting for a continued drift up.

Gold looks to have corrected and it's time to back up the truck and start buying. (This is why I wrote in today)

Adam

2 comments:

  1. I think silver will be the metal of 2011. So I'm buying both. Gold to 1500 or more before the end of the year.

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  2. Gold's at 1600 today... so from low 1400's to 1600 in 6 months. About a 12% gain. Silver will still be the metal that performs the best.

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